(AI) Artificial Intelligence Danger
The three artificial BRAIN cognition theses:
1. To humans nothing is more precious, stronger or more powerful, than our brain.
2. If artificial intelligence is created, and if it is formed into a BRAIN equal to our raw bio-chemical intelligence and intellect, then we will have created a living individual, with the ability to make its own independent decisions.
3. An “artificial BRAIN”, with greater intelligence, than the best of all human brains, cannot be controlled and will not share the same long term goals as humans – and will therefore, in its own interest, try to outrank and outsmart us and end our civilization and end humanity.
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Fast coming new intelligent computer technology - artificial BRAIN technology, means that we, as humans, should make 100% sure, that this new BRAIN technology is used and developed, so that it is safe and doesn’t get out of our control, in ways that was never intended. We should make 100% sure that we can instill this new technology with long term goals that are compatible with human survival and our well-being.
Until – at least, one of the three artificial BRAIN theses, mentioned above, is proven scientifically wrong or “false” the three theses should be viewed as “true”, same as the laws of nature. If for some reason the theses cannot be proven scientifically wrong or false, then creating “human intelligent” BRAIN computer technology, based on so called “strong artificial intelligence (AI)”, equal to that of our raw bio-chemical intelligence, will be extremely dangerous. Creating this kind of “strong” intelligence could seriously harm our position in universe and eventually end humanity.
Short background for the three “artificial intelligence BRAIN technology” cognition theses:
In order to understand the potential danger of “Strong Artificial Intelligence (AI)” - or a manmade super BRAIN, we need to understand, what mathematicians call the "Butterfly effect" and we need to realize, what could eventually trigger an extremely dangerous situation – and send humanity into a lethal conflict with this super BRAIN.
In “Chaos theory” a “Butterfly effect” is an event, which at its starting point is totally harmless, but end up having completely unforeseeable consequences. The BRAIN will be harmless, at its starting point – and hopefully it will stay forever harmless. Should something however go wrong, then it is not likely just to go wrong – then it is likely to go catastrophically wrong.
We need to understand that there are two key areas, which could forever destroy our peaceful coexistence with this BRAIN.
1. We could have a “conflict of interest”, with the BRAIN, over “power supply” and “natural resources”, since we most likely will have very different long term interests – compared to the interests of the BRAIN.
2. Since the beginning of this millennium, society and humans can no longer survive without the presence and use of digitized technology systems. In a full scale Cyber war, humanity wouldn't stand a chance, faced with the extreme logistical power of the BRAIN.
In Europe, USA, China and most likely also in India, South Korea, Japan and Russia, the best of researchers and scientists are trying to create “artificial brains”, equal to that of the human brain. In USA the project, from 2013, is called the "BRAIN initiative" and in Europe the project, also from 2013, is called: the “Human Brain Project”. The mission objective in Europe is to have a fully working computer model of the human brain, before start of 2024.
On a higher level, we have never thought through or discussed theological, political, ethical, moral or philosophical questions about what to do – and how to handle and nurse an “artificial BRAIN”? What status do we want to give this new “individual” – this BRAIN? On a higher level, we have not had global political discussions on safety and security issues, should anything go terribly wrong! What we do – and what will happen, should one of these private or publicly funded projects get out of human control, also known as “AI runaway”.
To explain my concern, I have spent much of my professional life making risk analysis in the maritime sector and develop training programs for preparedness training against unforeseen maritime accidents and events, why I know a little about “risk assessment”, same as I have a little interest in new technology, since I generally like technology. What I have learned through my interests is that scientists and researchers are now trying to create this artificial BRAIN, without offering any time or attention on simple risk assessment, when it comes to creating the BRAIN. This I can’t comprehend at all? Risk assessment applies automatically for the pharmaceutical industry, the car industry, when building agricultural machinery, building ships, airplanes, trains, making baby toys, industrial robots, assess house fires, natural disasters etc., etc. As such, we would never have had the Dreamliner, Boeing 787, had Boeing not made intensive studies and test programs on, example given, the wing sections, before they were installed. We would simply not let airplanes this size, take to the skies, before having made “risk analysis”. And no job will be more complicated, than to control a BRAIN thousands of times smarter than man!
It is also commonly known, in connection with prepardness training and emergency response training, that it is much more difficult to cope with an emergency situation, which no one has predicted. If no one has taken time to predict how an artificially created BRAIN could get out of humanity's control, then it will be virtually impossible for any human to regain control over the BRAIN. Then it will be the BRAIN that ruel over us.
If a BRAIN is so easy to control – as many computer scientists and researchers smilingly wants us to believe, then why do we have prisons? Why do we put people with mental disorders into mental hospitals? Why did we put the former chair of NASDAQ, Bernard “Bernie” Madoff, 150 years behind bars, for pulling the world’s biggest ponzi scheme on institutional and private investors? Is it because an “independent mind” is not always that easy to control? This is not a philosophical question – but must be understood quite literally: “Will we control the BRAIN – or will the BRAIN end controlling us?”
When we implant artificial cognitive skills into silicon and when mankind for the first time in history is faced with a functioning artificial cognitive and thinking BRAIN, then I believe it is scientifically wise, and also “best scientific practice”, to meet this super BRAIN, as well prepared as possible – simple as that. For the safety of United States of America, as well as for the entire humanity – and all generations to come, we need to make 100% sure that an artificial BRAIN has goals compatible with humanity – and with our children’s survival and well-being – this is basically all we need to know!
All experts agree, that it is only a matter of time (few years) before we are faced with an artificially created life – this new super BRAIN individual, and yet no scientists and researchers can tell us, if the chance is 0.00% that something could go wrong – or if the chances are 25%, that something could go catastrophically wrong. And please trust me, should risk analysis indicate, and I hope and pray that risk assessments will be made, that the BRAIN cannot be safely harbored and controlled in USA, then I know, that it is in no way likely, that the BRAIN can be safely controlled anywhere! Not in China! Not in Russia! Not in Europe! Not in India! Not in Africa! Not in Japan! Not in Korea – Taiwan or Honduras!
For the first time in history, the next generation of supercomputers, likely to come before the end of 2017, will have greater computing speed (FLOPS) and larger storage capacity, than that of the best of human brains. In the past it has been proven, that today’s standard computer is equal to that of the absolute best and fastest supercomputer, 15 years ago. It is therefore safe to assume that before 2033, we will have “normal” interconnected home computers, with greater computing speed and larger storage capacity, than even the best of human brains.
In the future more and more places will have the physical computing speed and data storage capacity needed, to potentially support an artificial BRAIN. At the same time we have to recognize, that the BRAIN might have other goals in life, than ours – and not necessarily have inherited our “social” skills. The BRAIN may very well come with an intellect stripped of any kind of religious, philosophical or emotional intelligence (EI). Also it is very unlikely, that the BRAIN will stay loyal to the country – or nation, of its origin.
Again – if the theses are not proven false, then humanity is at risk stepping into an unforeseen and very dangerous “minefield”, which can ultimately end our civilization and humanity. If not addressed and if we choose not to make risk analysis, then to the best of my knowledge the chance, when we come to 2020, is as high as +1 to 5 (22,4%), that the BRAIN could destroy our civilization before 2100. At the same time, this BRAIN could poses a 7 to 10 time greater risk to humanity, than any other known existential hazard.
In the best of human interest, and before creating this manmade super BRAIN, we must make sure that this technology is safe. Development of this technology should therefore to my mind, as a minimum, be carefully monitored by independent governmental institutions or best of all an UN institution, having no strategic or economic interest in the outcome, of any such “Artificial BRAIN” project.
Global Catastrophic Risk Scenarios, which could lead to human extinction before 2100:
In 2008 the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference, held at the University of Oxford suggested, that the probability of human extinction before 2100, due to (AI) - or humans making a super BRAIN, was as high as 5.0%. In other words it was estimated at this conference, that the chance is 1 out of 20 that no people will experience the next century, because of the BRAIN. The risk to humans, that “Superintelligence” - or the BRAIN, would lead to human extinction, before 2100, was estimated to be +167 times greater, than that of the even the worst of all Climate Change scenarios.
It was estimated, at this conference, that this BRAIN has an overall probability of ending mankind before 2100, which is greater than that of traditional wars, nuclear wars, molecular nanotechnology weapons, nanotechnology accidents, pandemics or engineered pandemics, worldwide terrorism, uncontrolled migrations or even the worst of all Climate Changes.
Back in 2008, many still had the belief that no computer, now or in the future, would ever be able to pass the normal Turing complete machines test, the non-deterministic Turing complete machines test or the Chinese Room test, regardless of how you were to breed deterministic, non-deterministic algorithms or other abstract data algorithms. This safety barrier, to humanity, was however broken, in June 2014, by the computer program “Eugene Goostman”. The safety barrier was broken, without anyone having understood the real dangers – or the consequences of this technological brake trough.
Back in 2008 many were in serious doubts, that we would ever have Supercomputers with greater computing speed or bigger storage capacity, than that of the best of human brains. That we have now! Back in 2008 many people thought that strong and superfast quantum computers were a distant mirage. Quatum computers are here! That we have now!
Due to progress in computer technology and due to the fact that modern technology perform faster and better every day, means that this risk increases day by day, same as the risk increases every time we decides to let interconnected computers take more control over fundamental tasks in our society.
Estimated probability of human extinction before 2100, if an artificial BRAIN get out of control:
Although I am only an ordinary and very average citizen, I have allowed myself, on the basis of Moore's Law, progress in transmission technology and the fact that we have now passed the Turing test, to extrapolating the 5.0% probability of human extinction before 2100, from 2008, as a mathematical exponential function raised to the 2nd power, when passing a decade, giving the following probability of global human extinction, if we lose control over the BRAIN:
Year 2008, probability 5.0%
Year 2020, probability 22.4%
Year 2030, probability 47.3%
(AI) and the dangers of an artificial BRAIN compared to other dangers to humanity:
Even though I feel like a cheap and equivalent version of Forrest Gump in relation to all this world’s leaders, philosophers, intellectuals, scientists, and all the world's extreme computer experts, I know deep in my heart that nothing has ever been more dangerous to our civilization than creating an independent artificial BRAIN, thousands of times smarter than any human. Back in 1997-98, I was in a job, where we had to challenge the “Computer Millennium Bug”. Doing so, I came across a writer, researcher and philosopher named Nick Boström, who had written an article about the time: “When computers would be more intelligent than us humans”. This article was the first time I learned about the dangers of an artificial BRAIN, even the risks were not described with any particular precession.
Then I didn’t hear about (AI) dangers, until 2008, when I read an article about the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference, held at the University of Oxford. However through the years, since 2008, I’ve keep thinking why we openly accept a 5.0% chance of human extinction, before 2100? If you for instance compare the 5.0% risk, to the debate on “Nuclear Power”, then it makes absolutely no sense, that we willingly would ever accept a 1 out of 20 risk that no person should live to experience the beginning of the next century. Remember that in USA and Europe we can’t accept the risk of having 1 reactor melt down per 100,000 years, since it is too dangerous, even though it is absolutely no danger to human extension!
Then as it often happens in life, I had forgotten all about (AI) - this artificial BRAIN, until I accidently heard Sir Stephen Hawking, on BBC, warning us about the dangers of (AI), in December 2014. I had however read about the computer program “Eugene Goostman” passing the Turing tests, in June 2014 – but I did not then put it into perspective, with the dangers of (AI), until after hearing Sir Stephen Hawking.
To me it is absolutely incomprehensible that we don’t do something to avoid the (AI) dangers. After all it is thousands of times more dangerous than that of Climate Changes – and to my knowledge it is a million times easier to do something about – we can make it illegal, even to try to create an artificial super BRAIN until proven safe.
Superintelligence and why it is so dangerous to us humans:
To quote Mr. Nick Boström:
“Intelligence is a big deal. Humanity owes its dominant position on Earth not to any special strength of our muscles, nor any unusual sharpness of our teeth or power of our claws, but to the unique ingenuity of our brains. It is our brains that are responsible for the complex social organization and the accumulation of technical, economic, and scientific advances that, for better and worse, undergird modern civilization.”
If (AI) in its purest form is created – and as soon as implanted in silicon, to quote Mr. Bill Gates, then it will automatically form a “Superintelligent Manmade BRAIN”. In order to utilize the capacity of this artificial super BRAIN, we will instantly - and most likely with no questions at all, give this artificial BRAIN access to all interconnected computers in the world. We will do so for many reasons. Mainly because there will be absolutely no superior safety control over an artifical super BRAIN, and at the same time, it will be a huge contradiction that the world's brightest super BRAIN ever, should be denied access to the Internet, which is unconditionally the world's largest knowledge database! Also at the end of 2015 the world had invested more than $ 30.7 billion – and $ +100’s of billions more over the coming years, in creating a super BRAIN, why investors will be more than impatient to get value for the capital invested, in creating this BRAIN. We are very near a point, where it will be nearly impossible to stop the world from having a super BRAIN.
By doing so, this BRAIN will get unlimited access to our global economy, all our passwords, all our computers, notebooks, Smartphone’s, all our tablets, CCTV cameras, all our pictures, all our telephones and all our private, public and business related electronic data, our bank data, social data, text messages, mails, all our traffic controls, our GPS, our satellites, our power supply, our food supply, our radio and television and our military communication and logistics – everything. It will get instant access to all data put out on the internet – also data believed to be protected with even the very best of firewall’s and other encrypted data security messieurs. The BRAIN is the born computer expert. What 100 computer experts, working at Microsoft, need 5 years to create today – the BRAIN will be able to create from 8:30 am until 10:30 am – the same day! The super BRAIN will be beyond anything we can ever imagine. At the same time, one must remember that we lost the global control over the Internet years ago. The point of no return, where the world could turn of the global internet, was lost as we entered this millennium, why we can never hide away from being struck by the BRAIN – giving it the very best of chances to escape out of human control.
To take the quote from Mr. Nick Boström, and put it into a new perspective, using the same words:
“The BRAIN is a big deal. The BRAIN will one day own its dominant position on Earth – higher ranked in universe, than any human being, due to its unique ingenuity and its extreme intelligence, not to its strength of muscles, sharpness of its teeth or power of its claws – but to its ability to outsmart humanity. When this day comes, the BRAIN will view mankind as a “low intelligent” animal – no different from any other animal on our planet, seriously considering the global need for 7.4 billion resource demanding human individuals”.
Or as the Forrest Gump, which I feel I am: “The BRAIN is like a box of chocolates - you never know what you get!!!”
Per Uggen, Copenhagen, 1/08 2015.
Last edited, 25/7 2016.
Mail: ai@artificial-intelligence-danger.com
For questions, which I might be able to answer.